Football Betting Tips
Welcome to our weekly column where we try and seek good value in some longer odds bets.
A nice little profit this week as all three parts of our Premier League patent came in. I tipped Birmingham, Arsenal and Liverpool, and the Gunners’ excellent 3-0 win over Manchester City helped us to a tidy 14.5 point profit.
Let’s see what this week brings.
Top Tip – 3pts Derby to beat Watford at 6/5
Patience is a virtue that football club chairmen rarely demonstrate. However if the board of Derby County are anything like as patient as that of Burton Albion, allowing Nigel Clough several seasons to bed in as the club’s manager could reap enormous dividends.
The son of one of football’s great figures, Clough is gradually stamping his authority at Pride Park and County have made an encouraging start to the season, sitting 12th, just three points off the play-off places. The Rams host high flying Watford this weekend.
Derby have won four of their last six Championship matches, including convincing wins over Middlesbrough, Crystal Palace and Preston in their last three home games. They have developed a knack of seeing off Championship sides in front of a large and enthusiastic Pride Park crowd in recent weeks, and whilst Watford are a better side than this trio, Derby can register another home triumph this weekend at a tasty 6/5.
Sunday Football Patent – 0.5 pts patent Aston Villa (4/5), Bolton Wanderers (23/10) and Athletic Bilbao (evens)
Despite their 1-0 reverse at Sunderland last time out, Aston Villa fans must be pleased with the progress their team is making under new manager Gerard Houllier. A solid draw against Chelsea and some handy recent performances are set to see Villa challenging for a European place by the end of this campaign.
Villa host Birmingham City in this weekend’s second city derby. The Blues beat Blackpool last time out although they needed penalties to beat lowly Brentford in midweek and their form has been patchy all season. I expect Villa to run out comfortable winners in this one at 4/5.
Liverpool secured a much needed win over Blackburn Rovers last time out which kept the wolves from Roy Hodgson’s door…at least temporarily. In any other season you’d back the Reds to see off Bolton Wanderers at 6/5 but this is no normal season for the once great club.
Bolton have played some terrific football this season and have added flair to a direct, gritty style. They gave Man Utd one heck of a game a few weeks back and Liverpool are nowhere like United’s class. At 23/10, Owen Coyle’s side give Liverpool fans something more to think about.
The final match in this week’s patent comes from La Liga. The San Mames is always a difficult place for away teams to visit and with little separating them in the league, Athletic Bilbao can beat Getafe this Sunday at evens. Bilbao won their last home match against Real Zaragoza, whilst Getafe have only won one match on the road all season. Neither side is in great form, but the Basque side can nick all three points in this one.
Football Long Shot – 1pt Man Utd to beat Spurs and 5 or more total goals in the match at 5/1
Two of the Premier League’s most attack minded sides meet this Saturday teatime in one of the more attractive fixtures in the football calendar. Both Manchester United and Spurs have made promising starts to their respective campaigns, although both find themselves chasing their title rivals early in the season.
In a game where both teams’ weakness is their defence, there could well be goals in this one. United have shown repeated defensive frailties this season, conceding late goals to Fulham, West Brom, Liverpool, Everton and Stoke City over recent weeks whilst Spurs were 4-0 down to Inter Milan last week with barely half an hour on the clock.
I fancy United to win the match, but I like the 5/1 about United winning and there being five or more goals in the match. The corresponding fixture finished 3-1 and 5-2 in the last two seasons and so it is likely to be a wide-open game. I can see the home side winning 3-2 or 4-2, so the 5/1 on this market looks good value.
Current total: + 9 points